Polymarket Online Wildfire Betting
California’s always dangerous wildfire season is now the focus of political pressure. The attention it’s receiving from the online gambling industry, this seems crazy, but it’s true. The public can place bets on the areas of the state that could burn next if a wildfire actually erupts.
California State Senators Alex Padilla, Adam Schiff, and seven of their Senate colleagues are now calling on these online trading websites to stop offering wildfire bets.
Online Betting Websites on Peoples Suffering
You know, we all are familiar with sports betting on things like outcomes and statistics, but you can actually nowadays bet on almost anything. That includes the weather, what’s said in the next political speech, e-sports, and apparently now wildfires.
Locally, across the West Coast, and even the continent, wildfires have been devastating communities throughout the 2026 fire season. As one person suffers, others are able to gain. There’s starting to be the ability to actually place online website bets on whether wildfires will occur, how quickly they’ll spread. It’s monetizing human suffering and potential harm to people.
Polymarket and Other Websites Like it Accept Bets on Wildfires
Online betting websites like Polymarket allow people to bet on outcomes of real world events like elections, sports, and more, including wildfires. During the devastating 2025 Palisades and Eaton wildfires in Los Angeles, Polymarket website accepted more than 1.2 million dollars in online bets. That was nearly 10 times more than what was bet on a recent San Francisco Giants game.
Senators take Action with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission CFTC
This prompted a group of U.S. Senators, including California’s Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla, to send a letter about this to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, writing in part, “offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering, all so the rich and powerful can profit on the Polymarket website. As the United States faces yet another record-breaking fire season this year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission cannot allow these prediction markets to offer unrestricted online betting websites on wildfires. “
Risks vs Ethical Concerns
Ann Skeet, Senior Director of Leadership Ethics at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University, says the risks may even outweigh the ethical concerns. We refer to it as perverse incentives, when someone’s motivated to do something that is not good, not serving the society, and certainly in this case, the ability to start a fire.
New Online Website Called “Wildfire” was Even Created this Year
Wildfire is offering the first prediction market for California wildfires in real time. Cal Fire told us in a statement that there are protections in place so their firefighters cannot use these sort of predictive websites like Polymarket, but these lawmakers are still seeking answers to several questions, and calling on the Commission to put in common-sense guardrails.
WIRED – Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Whether a Wildfire Will Burn Down Your Town
